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Track record

Horizon	70% band hit rate	Resolved forecasts
15-minute	64.7%	14071
60-minute	64.2%	14068

70% band = the 15th–85th percentile of the forecast distribution. Hit rate is the share of resolved forecasts where the actual close fell inside that band.

Horizon	Confidence	Hit rate	Resolved
15-minute	LOW	64.8%	7,394
15-minute	MED	64.7%	6,602
15-minute	HIGH	64.4%	73
60-minute	LOW	64.2%	7,391
60-minute	MED	64.5%	6,602
60-minute	HIGH	49.3%	73

Confidence tiers reflect the engine's per-bucket signal strength. Rows marked "insufficient sample" have n < 30 resolved forecasts — not yet statistically meaningful.

Rolling narrative

BTC 15M Update — 20:11:13 ET
Spot $81,500. Forming bar 20:00 ET, 11.2m in (settles 20:15 ET).

Hit/Miss Recap
19:30 ET (15min, combined): forecast $81,752 - $82,084, actual $81,737. Miss.
Engine record: 18144 for 28139 on 70% bands (64%).

Market Read
Reversal forming — bars pivoted off $81,765 high, last close back down to $81,757. Watch for confirmation below prior low.
Forming bar pace SURGE at 2.0x — heavy participation, momentum bar likely. Watch volume direction.
Kalshi 15M flow: MM cum $+20,248 — takers heavily offside.
Pattern flags: PRESSURE_VS_WEIGHT

Levels
Resistance: $82,177, $82,066, $81,975 (session high $83,067)
Support: $81,647, $81,668, $81,698 (session low $81,647)

Next 15-min Forecast (settles 20:15 ET)
Anchor $81,500. Spot near anchor (forming bar 11.2m in).
70% range: $81,344 - $81,572
Most likely: $81,394 - $81,548 (median $81,475)
Lean: CHOP (LOW) edge -7.2pp p=0.117

End-of-Hour Forecast (settles 21:00 ET, 60m away)
70% range: $81,214 - $81,764
Most likely: $81,344 - $81,649 (median $81,465)
Edge -5.4pp p=0.2398 shape: unimodal

Invalidation
thesis dies if spot prints outside $81623-$83091 with bar range > $248

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