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Track record

Horizon	70% band hit rate	Resolved forecasts
15-minute	61.8%	5392
60-minute	57.6%	5389

70% band = the 15th–85th percentile of the forecast distribution. Hit rate is the share of resolved forecasts where the actual close fell inside that band.

Horizon	Confidence	Hit rate	Resolved
15-minute	LOW	61.7%	2,840
15-minute	MED	62.1%	2,530
15-minute	HIGH	60.0%	20
60-minute	LOW	57.4%	2,839
60-minute	MED	58.1%	2,528
60-minute	HIGH	25.0%	20

Confidence tiers reflect the engine's per-bucket signal strength. Rows marked "insufficient sample" have n < 30 resolved forecasts — not yet statistically meaningful.

Rolling narrative

BTC 15M Update — 23:10:29 ET
Spot $62,411. Forming bar 23:00 ET, 10.5m in (settles 23:15 ET).

Hit/Miss Recap
22:30 ET (15min, combined): forecast $62,253 - $62,407, actual $62,530. Miss.
Engine record: 6437 for 10781 on 70% bands (60%).
Engine slipping: 2 consecutive misses. Discount confidence.

Market Read
Double-top forming at $62,584 — rejected at 21:15 ET and again at 22:45 ET (within 0.00%). Watch this level as a ceiling; fade-the-top trades cleanest above $62,584.
Double-bottom forming at $62,222 — held at 20:00 ET and again at 20:30 ET (within 0.02%). Watch this level as a floor.
Forming bar pace THIN at 0.60x — low conviction, range-bound digestion.
Pattern flags: PRESSURE_VS_WEIGHT

Levels
Resistance: $62,585, $62,562, $62,547 (session high $62,616)
Support: $62,253, $62,312, $62,420 (session low $61,814)

Next 15-min Forecast (settles 23:15 ET)
Anchor $62,411. Spot near anchor (forming bar 10.5m in).
70% range: $62,340 - $62,454
Most likely: $62,389 - $62,438 (median $62,418)
Lean: CHOP (MED) edge +8.9pp p=0.3822

End-of-Hour Forecast (settles 00:00 ET, 60m away)
70% range: $62,214 - $62,568
Most likely: $62,305 - $62,508 (median $62,391)
Edge -12.4pp p=0.2266 shape: unimodal

Invalidation
thesis dies if spot prints outside $61796-$62634 with bar range > $179

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