AnalogQuant · public forecast mirror

Track record

Horizon	70% band hit rate	Resolved forecasts
15-minute	61.8%	5388
60-minute	57.5%	5385

70% band = the 15th–85th percentile of the forecast distribution. Hit rate is the share of resolved forecasts where the actual close fell inside that band.

Horizon	Confidence	Hit rate	Resolved
15-minute	LOW	61.7%	2,839
15-minute	MED	62.0%	2,527
15-minute	HIGH	60.0%	20
60-minute	LOW	57.4%	2,838
60-minute	MED	58.1%	2,525
60-minute	HIGH	25.0%	20

Confidence tiers reflect the engine's per-bucket signal strength. Rows marked "insufficient sample" have n < 30 resolved forecasts — not yet statistically meaningful.

Rolling narrative

BTC 15M Update — 22:10:31 ET
Spot $62,521. Forming bar 22:00 ET, 10.5m in (settles 22:15 ET).

Hit/Miss Recap
21:30 ET (15min, combined): forecast $62,354 - $62,537, actual $62,445. Hit.
Engine record: 6431 for 10773 on 70% bands (60%).
Engine on hot streak: 3 consecutive hits. Recent calibration is sound.

Market Read
Kalshi 15M net delta -67,511 — aggressive NO buying dominates.
Pattern flags: TIGHT_RANGE_CAGE, NET_DELTA_DIVERGENCE, RESISTANCE_FADE, PRESSURE_VS_WEIGHT

Coil Watch
Sustained compression in play - last 4 bars (21:15 ET, 21:30 ET, 21:45 ET, 22:00 ET) closing in a $94 range (0.150%). Compression bars often precede directional moves.
Upper: $62,521 Lower: $62,427
If breaks UP (close above $62,521): retest $62,616.
If breaks DOWN (close below $62,427): retest $62,393, then $62,251.
Invalidations:
UP break: close above $62,521 with bar range > $141
DOWN break: close below $62,427 with bar range > $141

Levels
Resistance: $62,584, $62,520, $62,519 (session high $62,616)
Support: $62,393, $62,400, $62,403 (session low $61,814)

Next 15-min Forecast (settles 22:15 ET)
Anchor $62,521. Spot near anchor (forming bar 10.5m in).
70% range: $62,447 - $62,598
Most likely: $62,486 - $62,571 (median $62,531)
Lean: CHOP (MED) edge +8.9pp p=0.1313

End-of-Hour Forecast (settles 23:00 ET, 60m away)
70% range: $62,292 - $62,671
Most likely: $62,368 - $62,644 (median $62,508)
Edge -5.4pp p=0.3601 shape: unimodal

Invalidation
thesis dies if spot prints outside $61796-$62634 with bar range > $180

Share

Tweet 15-min forecast Tweet EOH forecast Tweet calibration