AnalogQuant · public forecast mirror

BTC 15M Update — 14:45:19 ET
Spot $81,541. Forming bar 14:45 ET, 0.3m in (settles 15:00 ET).

Hit/Miss Recap
14:15 ET (15min, combined): forecast $81,630 - $81,825, actual $81,877. Miss.
Engine record: 3566 for 5833 on 70% bands (61%).
ENGINE ON COLD STREAK — 4 consecutive misses. Treat next bucket with extra caution; consider paper-only if pattern continues.

Market Read
Double-bottom forming at $81,297 — held at 12:00 ET and again at 13:15 ET (within 0.04%). Watch this level as a floor.
Downtrend in place: closes bleeding from $81,686 to $81,539 over the last 4 bars ($147 drop).
Forming bar pace THIN at 0.47x — low conviction, range-bound digestion.
Pattern flags: NET_DELTA_DIVERGENCE, PRESSURE_VS_WEIGHT

Levels
Resistance: $81,976, $81,893, $81,875 (session high $82,070)
Support: $81,484, $81,501, $81,658 (session low $79,528)

Next 15-min Forecast (settles 15:00 ET)
Anchor $81,541. Spot near anchor (forming bar 0.3m in).
70% range: $81,466 - $81,478
Most likely: $81,468 - $81,476 (median $81,472)
Lean: CHOP (LOW) edge -50.6pp p=0.1522

End-of-Hour Forecast (settles 15:00 ET, 15m away)
70% range: $81,466 - $81,478
Most likely: $81,468 - $81,476 (median $81,472)
Edge -50.6pp p=0.1522 shape: insufficient_n

Warning: ATR elevated at $345. Treat sizing conservatively.

Invalidation
thesis dies if spot prints outside $79493-$82105 with bar range > $345